Interesting Spending Information: Drake Morton
Change Noted In Consumer Spending Expectations
According to the latest ChangeWave survey of U.S. consumers, conducted January 5-9, editors Paul Carton and Jean Crumrine suggest that this latest survey shows some intriguing signs that consumer spending may finally be stabilizing after a prolonged slowdown. While overall spending still looks terrible, they say, the 90-day outlook is not quite as horrible as it was in the December 2008 survey. Fifty-seven percent of U.S. respondents said they’ll spend less during the next 90 days than they did a year ago — but that’s three points better than in the December survey. Another 13% said they’ll spend more — two points better than previously.
Respondents were also queried on their current impressions of the economy and, once again, while things look bad, they don’t appear quite as awful as they did in December. 12% said they think the economy will improve in the next 90 days, three points better than in December. 56% said they think the economy will worsen during the next 90 days, but a significant 10 points better than the December low.
Other sentiment indicators also show some improvement, according to the study.
• 5% said they are very satisfied with the current state of their personal finances, up one point from the record low in December, while another 39% said they’re somewhat satisfied, up eight points.
• Twenty-six percent said they are now more confident in the U.S. stock market than they were 90 days ago, 13 points better than previously. Only 31% said they’re less confident, a 25-point improvement
• Among those U.S. consumers who said they’re spending less, reduced income, saving more money, and reducing debt were the top reasons given
• The percentage of respondents who said they’re   spending less in order to save more money has skyrocketed from 18% to 41% during the past six months, and the percentage saying they’re reducing debt has jumped from 24% to 36%
For the first time in a year, says the report, there are slight signs of improvement in restaurant spending, although the category remains very weak. Only 6% said they’ll spend more going forward, while 48% said less — a net two-point improvement since December.
Spending on household repairs/improvements has also registered an uptick from the all-time low seen in ChangeWave’s December survey. Twenty-six percent said they’ll spend more on household repairs during the next 90 days, while 21% said less — a net four points better than last month.
Consumer electronics remains one of the weakest spending categories.
Only 15% said they’ll spend more on consumer electronics going forward, compared with 41% who said less — a net six points worse than the previous survey, and 22 points worse than a year ago.
Since February 2007, ChangeWave’s consumer surveys have consistently pointed to two retail winners: Wal-Mart (net difference score = +6) and Costco (+6). But while both still lead among retail outlets in terms of spending growth during the next 90 days, Costco has experienced a significant drop in its growth rate in the past six months (from +11 in July ‘08 to +6 in January ‘09).
The greatest weakness going forward is among traditional retailers, led by Bed, Bath & Beyond (-14), Sears (-12), Macy’s (-12) and JC Penney (-10).
The report writers conclude that “…for the first time since May 2008, we’re seeing signs of a tiny spending uptick. Moreover, there’s an improvement in consumer sentiment and expectations going forward… these improvements, however, are tenuous… Just as the May uptick was due, in part, to heightened expectations over the tax stimulus package, the current outlook may have much to do with the anticipation surrounding the new administration’s economic stimulus plan… ”
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